The Liberal party apparently saw the writing on the wall even before four federal byelections were held on Monday. Before the polls had even closed, the party had issued "talking points" -- read obfuscations, for that -- to its MPs and members on how to fudge what they clearly expected to be bad news.
"If the Conservatives fail to win all of the seats in tonight's byelections, it will be a signal that Canadians are still not willing to turn over the keys to such a partisan and incompetent government," the party said on Monday.
In the result, the Tories won two of the four seats, one in Nova Scotia and one in Quebec -- that, and the consistent results of recent polls, indicates a rise in their fortunes; the Bloc Quebecois retained one seat in Quebec; and the NDP held on to one in British Columbia. That's good news for pretty well every major political party in Canada except for the Liberals and their leader, Michael Ignatieff.
No one, except, it seems, for Mr. Ignatieff, seriously expected the Conservatives to win all four seats. In fact, leading up to the byelections, there was speculation that the Tories might not win one of them.
As the Liberals' pre-emptive strike shows, you can spin these things pretty well anyway you want, but it seems clear from the byelection results that the major winners on Monday were the Conservatives and the NDP.
The Tories recaptured the Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoit riding in Nova Scotia, which had gone to a former Conservative turned independent in 2008, and recaptured it with a whopping 45.8 per cent of the vote, allaying fears that Nova Scotia voters were turning to the New Democrats on the federal level. The Tories also won in Montmangy-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup in Quebec with a vote of 42.5 per cent in a surprising upset. That may not be a body blow to the BQ, but it helps give the Conservatives credence as the legitimate alternative to the Bloc in the next federal general election.
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