There is much reason to believe that John Tory would make a capable premier of Ontario. But it is increasingly improbable that he will get the chance. Although a victim of circumstance as well as his own mistakes, the Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader has cause to consider this holiday season whether it is worth staying on.
Mr. Tory faced an uphill battle from the moment he took over his party in 2004. After the hard-line conservatism of the Mike Harris era, he attempted to shift the provincial Tories back toward the moderate approach of Bill Davis, Mr. Tory's former boss and mentor. This return to pragmatism was in keeping with the times. But it placed him at odds with members of his caucus and the grassroots membership, many of whom viewed him as an interloper. He seemed never to have the full confidence of his own party or the commitment of leading members to rebuilding it in his preferred mould.
Making matters more difficult for Mr. Tory has been an incumbent government that has proved extremely difficult to knock off balance. Dalton McGuinty's Liberals do not inspire great excitement, but they are competent managers who are adept at gauging the public mood and borrowing policies from both the left and the right accordingly. Mr. McGuinty is as much of a Bill Davis disciple as Mr. Tory. And given his experience in government, the full support of his party and the superior depth of talent around him, he has been better able to lay claim to that territory. Like Mr. Davis, he makes bland work.
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