This election was to be the Conservative vindication, a return to the golden age of majority control as a pan-Canadian party, strong in every region and all-powerful in Parliament. Any reference to Prime Minister Stephane Dion would only qualify as a lame joke.

But, unless every poll is wrong, that won't happen Tuesday. A minority government that forced an election to win big seems, as much as anyone can foreshadow a result amid so much poll fluctuation, poised to end up another minority government within 10 seats, give or take, of its 129-seat count at dissolution.

That would make this modest change a mighty expensive seat-swapping exercise given the $300-million-plus cost of this election.

But for a well-prepared campaign with a leader towering in credibility over his rivals, even a solid win will be an emotional loss if it doesn't give the Conservatives half the Commons seats and thus sufficient control to end the procedural dysfunctionality Harper claimed was handcuffing Canadian democracy. More...