Call it an astounding case of reverse momentum. As an excruciating Liberal spring comes to an end, the Conservative party is sliding so fast in the polls that it is about to overtake the NDP for last place among the national parties.
If the minority government had fallen last night, a summer election would have cost the Conservatives seats in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Ontario. The party has no breakthrough in sight in Quebec. It is lagging behind the Liberals in much of Atlantic Canada.
In this case, Prime Minister Paul Martin's self-imposed deadline of an election early next year is probably all that stands between Stephen Harper and a full-fledged mutiny. As the Bloc Québécois has discovered, the window for a leadership change is closing fast.
As they try to put the finger on the malaise that has undermined the Conservative's best shot at power in two decades, some have pointed to the leader's frosty personality.
Others blame the suspicions aroused in many pockets of urban Canada by the party's commitment to social conservative values, suspicions kept alive by Harper's insistence of dragging on the same-sex marriage debate in Parliament.
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