He may not have said it yet in so many words, but both the political friends and foes Gilles Duceppe are betting he'll stay put in Ottawa and pass up the chance to run for the Parti Quebecois leadership.
"Indications seem to go that way," Bloc Quebecois MP Richard Marceau acknowledged Sunday in a television interview. "Gilles Duceppe believes, and he's said that all along, that what we do in Ottawa is as important as what we do in Quebec City."
The Bloc leader has scheduled a news conference Monday to announce his decision - on Parliament Hill, an unlikely venue to launch a campaign for the leadership of sovereigntist forces in his home province.
His choice of location alone has been enough to convince many observers that Duceppe isn't going to make the jump.
But spokeswoman Karine Sauve insisted Sunday that people were reading too much into the place Duceppe selected to disclose his plans.